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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas yesterday.  It's here.

JANUARY 18,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

RIDICULOUS – There is now a drive to boycott the Oscars because there were no African-Americans among the actor nominees.  This is absurd.  I wonder how many pro-life Catholic women are among the nominees.  How about military veterans?  Observant Jews?  Republicans?  I can understand how people want to be "represented," but no one can demand nominations based on race.  They say the voting group in the academy is tilted toward "older white men," and that this affects nominations, but the fact is that these older white men are now drawn from the sixties generation, and they are decidedly liberal.  Suggestion for the protesters:  There's a lot of black money in show business.  How about investing some in starting film companies and studios?  Then you choose your own casting, and have a stronger presence.  That leads to more nominations.  Entrepreneurship is the key to group progress.

OH PLEASE – Grand Admiral Kerry expresses his outrage.  From The Hill:  Secretary of State John Kerry said on Monday that he was outraged by the footage of U.S. sailors being apprehended at gunpoint by the Iranian military last week.  "I was very angry. I was very frustrated and angry that that was released. I raised it immediately with the Iranians," he said during an interview on CNN.  "It was not put out by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the government directly, it was put out I think by the military over there, the [Iranian Revolutionary Guard], who is opposed to what we are doing."  Gee, you think they're opposed, Admiral Kerry?  And they have the power, don't they?  In that case, why are you so damned sure this ramshackle nuclear deal is going to work?

GIGANTIC SANDERS ENDORSEMENT – Bernie pushes on!  From The Hill:   Rapper Killer Mike told reporters Sunday that he ended up supporting Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders “after smoking a joint and reading his tweets.”  The hip-hop star appeared in the spin room for the Vermont senator after Sunday night’s debate.  The rapper endorsed Sanders for president in June after the candidate cited his support for restoring the Voting Rights Act.  Killer Mike has appeared with Sanders at several stops on the campaign trail since his endorsement.   Well, I guess it's over.  Killer Mike's endorsement is good enough for me.  Time for everyone else to drop out.

January 18,  2016     Permalink

THE DEATH OF EUROPE? – AT 11:40 A.M. ET:  I'm surprised that the European crisis and descent isn't getting more attention.  Low birth rates and high immigration rates may simply doom the Europe we know, and wipe out most of European culture.  There are signs, and they aren't good.  From Reuters: 

Is this how "Europe" ends?

The Germans, founders and funders of the postwar union, shut their borders to refugees in a bid for political survival by the chancellor who let in a million migrants. And then -- why not? -- they decide to revive the Deutschmark while they're at it.

That is not the fantasy of diehard Eurosceptics but a real fear articulated at the highest levels in Berlin and Brussels.

Chancellor Angela Merkel, her ratings hit by crimes blamed on asylum seekers at New Year parties in Cologne, and EU chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker both said as much last week.

Juncker echoed Merkel in warning that the central economic achievements of the common market and the euro are at risk from incoherent, nationalistic reactions to migration and other crises. He renewed warnings that Europe is on its "last chance", even if he still hoped it was not "at the beginning of the end".

Merkel, facing trouble among her conservative supporters as much as from opponents, called Europe "vulnerable" and the fate of the euro "directly linked" to resolving the migration crisis -- highlighting the risk of at the very least serious economic turbulence if not a formal dismantling of EU institutions.

Some see that as mere scare tactics aimed at fellow Europeans by leaders with too much to lose from an EU collapse -- Greeks and Italians have been seen to be dragging their feet over controlling the bloc's Mediterranean frontier and eastern Europeans who benefit from German subsidies and manufacturing supply chain jobs have led hostility to demands that they help take in refugees.

COMMENT:  The writers of the story continue the grand illusion that the main opposition to current refugee policies is coming from extremist groups.  It is not.  It is coming from what Richard Nixon called "the silent majority" in Europe, which is silent no more.

Europe is often a mess, but this time the mess is deadly.  Europeans see around them a European Union indifferent to their concerns.  They see their culture slipping away, and under pressure from cultures living in the 10th century.  But, under the rules of multiculturalism, that must not be mentioned. 

The picture is not pretty.  Don't be shocked if American leaders soon start talking about the fading of Europe, and its replacement as a power and economic center by Asia.  I could easily see a situation, within 25 years, wherein Europe is considered irrelevant, and Chinese is made mandatory in our schools.

January 18, 2016       Permalink

ANOTHER HOSTAGE CRISIS? – AT 10:28 A.M. ET:   Three Americans have been kidnapped in Iraq.  Another legacy of our fast, incompetent pullout from that country...after securing it.  From Fox: 

A group of Americans who disappeared in Baghdad over the weekend were kidnapped from their interpreter's apartment, according to multiple Iraqi sources.

The apartment is well-known in southern Baghdad as a brothel and is subject to frequent raids by Shiite militias, including the Iran-backed Asa’ib ah al-Haqq, a police official and a building resident told The Washington Post.

"We are in very direct contact with the Iraqi authorities... there is a very full effort going to find them as soon as possible," Secretary of State John Kerry told Fox News Monday.

An Iraqi intelligence official told the Associated Press that the Americans were invited into the apartment in the neighborhood of Dora. After they were abducted, they were taken to Sadr City, at which point the official said, "all communications and contact stopped."

A spokesman for Baghdad's Joint Operations Command told The Washington Post that the three citizens were Iraqis who had acquired U.S. citizenship. A Baghdad police official said they worked as contractors at Baghdad International Airport, but did not say which country employed them.

The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad confirmed Sunday that "several" Americans had vanished, while the State Department said it was working with the Iraqi government to locate them.

COMMENT:  Hard to know if there are any serious international implications.  It could be just a criminal act.  But nothing in the Mideast is uncomplicated.  We'll follow this.  If there are ransom demands, with threats of execution, we could be looking at another hostage crisis.  Potential hostage takers will watch our response carefully.

January 18,  2016     Permalink

MORE ON THE DEM DEBATE – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:  Washington Post has an interesting take on why, in its view, Hillary Clinton lost last night's Democratic debate.  From Chris Cillizza at WaPo: 

The former secretary of state was, as always, solid. And, at times — like in her closing statement on the water in Flint, Mich. — she was outstanding. Her knowledge — both the depth and the breadth of it — is on full display in these debate settings.

So, why is she in the loser column? Because she did nothing in the debate to slow the momentum that Sanders is building in Iowa and New Hampshire. Aside from guns, where Clinton scored a clean win against Sanders, she was unable to effectively cast him as a pie-in-the-sky idealist and herself as the only person who could truly fight for — and win on — Democratic priorities.

Time and again, she was boxed into defending a status quo that the American public — Democrats and Republicans alike — is dissatisfied with.

The Clinton-as-cautious-pragmatist vs. Sanders-as-idealist-fighter is not a good dynamic for the former secretary of state.

COMMENT:  Possibly true, but I get the sense that Hillary's main problems are that she's stale, been around too long, and has a poor reputation for integrity. 

But I wonder, at this point, what will really matter.  As we've noted, voting starts two weeks from now in Iowa.  If Sanders pulls it out, it's a blow to Hillary.  It's almost a foregone conclusion that Sanders will win New Hampshire, a week later, as he's from a neighboring state and is well known and popular in the region.

The make-or-break for both Sanders and Hillary will be South Carolina, on February 27th.  South Carolina has a large black constituency.  If Sanders can penetrate that pro-Clinton group, that will be real news.  If Hillary can soundly defeat Sanders in South Carolina, she'll be back in the saddle. 

Remember that, despite all the talk of a Sanders surge, Hillary is still well ahead of Bernie in national polls.  Her problems may turn out to be less with Sanders than with the FBI.

January 18, 2016       Permalink 

JANUARY 17,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

EARTH-SHAKING POLITICAL NEWS – There was a Democratic debate tonight.  Teams of Navy SEALS and Army Rangers have been dispatched to try to find anyone who watched.  There are rumors of an old guy in New Jersey.  So far, we haven't gotten much pundit reaction, except we hear that Bernie Sanders did well, Hillary did less well but held her own, and Martin O'Malley didn't tell anyone he was there.  The debate was scheduled opposite the NFL and "Downton Abbey."  It is reported that Bill Clinton was watching "Downton Abbey" throughout.  Has a thing for Lady Mary.  So I guess we'll have to wait for tomorrow for some serious analysis, if any is needed.  With two weeks to go before Iowa, the analysis will soon reflect actual voting.

LOWER EDUCATION – From the College Fix:   A professor and two graduate students in the University of Denver’s Department of Communications Studies today assert in an op-ed for college’s newspaper, The Clarion, that university emails regarding the November terrorist attacks in Paris were “biased towards white life.”  “It is our opinion that, despite these emails, DU participates in making its ‘marginalized communities’ feel unwelcomed because of an implicit bias toward white life not extended to the lives of nonwhite people. Our discussion of Paris is not meant to ignore the loss of life there, but to point out the valorization of white life assumed by DU,” they write.  Professor Armond R. Towns and graduate students Raisa Alvarado and Jamie Guzmán say the university shows “no concern with life returning to ‘normal’ when ‘terrorists’ attack Muslims,” and that “the assumption is that DU is most impacted by events that occur in Western countries,” not in, for example, “Mexico, Kenya, Baltimore, Palestine, or Baghdad.”  Last time I looked, Baltimore was in a Western country.  But who am I to challenge an alternative narrative?

KASICH ROMPS?  REALLY?  From the Washington Examiner:   The Nashua Telegraph endorsed John Kasich for the Republican nomination Sunday, an announcement that follows endorsements by two other New Hampshire papers during the week.  On Thursday, the Portsmouth Herald and the Foster's Daily Democrat endorsed Kasich for the nomination while also endorsing Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.  "Kasich is not the flashiest candidate in the field, but he has proven a highly effective leader both in Congress and as Ohio's top executive. In a race awash in half-truths and exaggerations, Kasich can stand on his record of accomplishment without the need to embellish it," Foster's and the Portsmouth Herald write in a joint editorial. The two papers share a publisher.  The Nashua Telegraph endorsed Mitt Romney in 2012, who went on to win New Hampshire and the GOP nomination.  If John Kasich's campaign for president is going to catch fire, it will be in New Hampshire. He polls best in the Grantite State out of any state other than his native Ohio, and he has invested heavily in succeeding there.   I doubt if these endorsements will have much impact.  Voters have seen Kasich, and they simply don't respond.  That's the bottom line.  There are plenty of people who'd vote against Abraham Lincoln because he had a high-pitched voice.

January 17, 2016       Permalink

THE U.S. SLAPS A WRIST – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  I guess the administration wants to show how "tough" it is.  This is not tough.  From AP:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States on Sunday imposed sanctions against 11 individuals and entities involved in Iran's ballistic missile program as a result of Tehran's firing of a medium-range ballistic missile, a new punishment one day after the Obama administration lifted economic penalties against the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program.

The missile program "poses a significant threat to regional and global security, and it will continue to be subject to international sanctions," said Adam J. Szubin, the Treasury's acting undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence in a statement.

He said the U.S. has made it clear that it will "vigorously press sanctions against Iranian activities" outside the terms of the nuclear agreement. Szubin cited Iran's "support for terrorism, regional destabilization, human rights abuses, and ballistic missile program."

COMMENT:  It's a slap on the wrist, but the statement was firm and correct.  Trouble is, Obama never backs firm words with firm action.  I'm not even sure Szubin's statement had the clearance of the White House.

We have a record with North Korea.  It is not good.  We signed a nuclear agreement with the Koreans, only to have them violate it repeatedly.  Our response?  Tough words, wrist slaps.

Failure repeats.

January 17, 2016      Permalink

CLINTON ROMPS IN NEW POLL – AT 11:31 A.M. ET:   We stress that polls are snapshots in time, and history shows that even the best-done polls can be way off in an unsettled political environment.  But a new, major poll is good news for Hillary.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Hillary Clinton is in close fights in Iowa and New Hampshire with rival Sen. Bernie Sanders, but is comfortably ahead in a national poll, 59 percent to 34 percent.

Clinton appears to have actually expanded her lead nationally, in this poll.

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News national poll was last published in December, when Clinton was up 19 percentage points. A new poll by the news organizations shows a 6-point bump for the Democratic front-runner despite media focus on Sanders' challenge to her campaign.

Clinton leads with men, 51 percent to 43 percent, and women, 65 percent to 27 percent.

Iowa and New Hampshire remain precarious for the former secretary of state. Victories by Sanders in both states could imperil her national advantage.

COMMENT:  And that, of course, is the caveat.  Hillary's campaign hits regular bumps, and losing both Iowa and New Hampshire would be big ones.  Also, there is a lag between the time a poll is started and the time it's reported.  Bernie has had a good week, Hillary so-so.

There's a Democratic debate today, competing with the NFL and "Downton Abbey."  Let's see who watches and how the candidates perform. 

This is not over.  The voting in Iowa begins in two weeks.

January 17, 2016       Permalink

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES – AT 10:50 A.M. ET:  I wonder if any of the geniuses who negotiated the Iran nuclear agreement thought about the economic implications.  From Bloomberg:

Stocks across the Middle East tumbled as the easing of sanctions against Iran raised the prospect of a surge in oil supplies to a market already reeling from the lowest prices in more than a decade. Shares in Tehran gained.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dropped 5.4 percent to its lowest level since March 2011. Abu Dhabi’s ADX General Index fell into a so-called bear market. The Bloomberg GCC 200 Index, which tracks 200 of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council’s biggest companies, traded at 9.5 times estimated 12-month earnings, the lowest in almost seven years. Iran’s TEDPIX Index climbed 0.9 percent, according to data on the bourse’s website, extending Saturday’s 2.1 percent advance.

Iran, home to almost 10 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, is starting preparations to boost exports after the United Nation’s nuclear agency on Saturday said the country has complied with the terms of an international agreement to curb its nuclear program. That threatens to put further pressure on prices, hurting the oil-dependent economies of the GCC.

COMMENT:  Obviously, we love to save money at the pump.  And pump prices for Americans have plunged in the last year because of ample supplies and the oil extraction boom in our own country.  We have been heading toward energy independence.

But there's a downside.  The plunge in prices is putting severe economic pressure on many of the new companies engaged in oil exploration in America.  Some have shut down.  Bankruptcies are expected.  Where will that leave our drive for energy independence?

And the Obamans, with their contempt for fossil fuels, don't seem to care.  They see petroleum exploration as an enemy, not the tremendous asset that it is.

Our economy is in danger. 

Recession?  From what I've been reading, maybe.

January 17,  2016     Permalink